About CDKN

Climate Development and Knowledge Network (CDKN) is a five-year initiative funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) which started in 2010, to assist developing countries respond to the challenges posed by climate change. A consortium of consulting and research institutions has been contracted by CDKN to implement this study:

    1.The Groupe-Conseil Baastel, a consultancy based near Ottawa (Canada) and Brussels (Belgium), with an office in Kampala.
    2.Makerere University (MAK)
    3.Metroeconomica Metroeconomica
    4.University of Wolverhampton/CIDT

Study Summary

Economic assessments of the impacts of climate change have been proven to be the catalyst for increased attention to and investment in climate change, which has spurred significant progress on the climate change policy development and increased climate-related investments. In order to support the implementation of the National Climate Change Policy, the Climate Change Department (CCD) of the Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE) with support from the Ministry of Finance Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) and the National Planning Authority (NPA) are engaged in discussions with the Climate Development and Knowledge Network (CDKN) to implement such an economic assessment in Uganda.

The overall aim of the study is to provide policy makers and donors in Uganda with the evidence based on the economic impacts of Climate Change in order to promote increased investment for adaptation in climate-sensitive sectors. The study also aims to increase the capacity of Government officials to use the evidence on the economic impacts of climate change in development and investment planning. The study provides the economic case for prioritized interventions and investments by the Government of Uganda in climate-resilient development, as well as assist Uganda to access climate and development finance, and frame its approach to climate finance mechanisms, such as the Green Climate Fund.

The report’s key messages are:

  1. Development prospects will only be reached if the impacts of climate change on Uganda are mitigated.
  2. The impacts of climate change are expected to be felt across all the sectors and local areas studied, to varying degrees.
  3. The cost of adaptation is high: estimated at around US$406 m over the next five years (2015–2020). On an annual basis, this amounts to about 5% of net official development assistance received and 3.2% of total government revenues (excluding grants).
  4. The cost of inaction is 20 times greater than the cost of adaptation: inaction is estimated at between US$3.1 bn and 5.9 bn per year by 2025, which is more than 20 times the proposed adaptation budget.
  5. The economic case for adaptation is clear: many of the adaptation measures proposed in the study are ‘no regrets’ investments, in that they are valid even in the absence of climate change.
  6. Considering the co-benefits strengthens the case for adaptation further, for example improved livelihoods, health and access to energy; these represent strong investments in the development of Uganda’s future.

Download the brochure summarising the Economic assessment of the impacts of climate change in Uganda: Key results on CDKN website.

Download the Study Final report and the Study Policy Briefing note

Study Structure and Timing

The economic assessment is structured around 6 work packages:

WP1: Inception phase and assessment of lessons learned from similar studies conducted in East Africa, including a regional meeting organized in Kampala. (January - April 2014).

WP2: Downscaling of climate change scenarios over Uganda, including a capacity building workshop. (January - July 2014).

WP3: Economic modelling at national, sectoral and district levels. (5 case studies + a specific assessment on Kampala urban area) (April 2014 – June 2015).

WP4: Recommendations for policy development and implementation, and priority investments. (April 2014 – November2015).

WP5: Communications & Outreach. (January 2014 – December 2015).

WP6: Management & Q.A. (January 2014 –December 2015).

Temperature and Rainfall Projections

Temperature Projections

Annual mean near-surface (2m) temperature (°C) change projected over 50-years (average 2046-2065) from present (average 1985-2005) under the RCP 4.5 concentration scenario.

temp001

Rainfall Projections

Annual total rainfall (mm/month) change projected over 50-years (average 2046-2065) from present (average 1985-2005) under the RCP 4.5 concentration scenario

Rainfall Projections001 

 

 

Access full report here (Regional-scale Climate Change Projections of Annual, Seasonal and Monthly Near-Surface Temperatures and Rainfall in Uganda)


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